Back to ResearchTamil Nadu Assembly Election 2026
Tamil Nadu Assembly Election 2026
POLIQ Projection
Comprehensive seat-by-seat projection for the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly Election based on POLIQ's multi-source intelligence methodology combining ground surveys, social media analysis, voter demographic modeling, and incumbency assessment across all 234 constituencies.
POLIQ's Final Projection
Data-Driven Forecast — Majority Mark: 118 seats
SPA (DMK-led)
148–162
Projected Seats
Vote Share: 42–46%
AIADMK+ / NDA
52–68
Projected Seats
Vote Share: 34–40%
TVK
10–18
Projected Seats
Vote Share: 8–12%
OTH
Others
0–6
Projected Seats
Vote Share: 2–4%
Detailed Constituency-Wise Projection
| S.No | Assembly Constituency | SPA Candidate | AIADMK+ / NDA | TVK | Projected Winner | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gummidipoondi | T. J. Govindrajan (DMK) | V. Sudhakar (AIADMK) | S. Vijayakumar | SPA | Strong welfare hold and rural infra. |
| 2 | Ponneri (SC) | Durai Chandrasekar (INC) | P. Balaraman (AIADMK) | Dr. M S Ravi | SWING | Multi-cornered fight favoring SPA consolidation. |
| 3 | Tiruttani | D. Krishnamoorthy (DMDK) | G. Hari (AIADMK) | Dr. Sathyakumar | SPA | DMDK switch to SPA secures the seat. |
| 4 | Thiruvallur | V. G. Raajendran (DMK) | B. V. Ramana (AIADMK) | Dr. Arunkumar | SPA | Consistent urban development delivery. |
| 5 | Poonamallee (SC) | A. Krishnaswamy (DMK) | T. A. Elumalai (AMMK) | R. Prakasam | SPA | VCK-DMK consolidation of Dalit-minority votes. |
| 6 | Avadi | S. M. Nasar (DMK) | M. Rajasimha Mahendra (BJP) | R. Rameshkumar | SWING | High TVK impact on urban middle-class voters. |
| 7 | Maduravoyal | K. Ganapathy (DMK) | P. Benjamin (AIADMK) | P. Revanth Saran | SPA | Incumbent ground activity remains superior. |
| 8 | Ambattur | A. P. Poornima (DMK) | K. N. Sekar (PMK) | G. Balamurugan | SWING | PMK Vanniyar push vs. industrial labor grievances. |
| 9 | Madhavaram | S. Sudharsanam (DMK) | V. Moorthy (AIADMK) | M. L. Vijay Prabhu | SPA | Strong organizational reach of DMK MLA. |
| 10 | Thiruvottiyur | L. Sundararajan (CPI-M) | K. Kuppan (AIADMK) | Senthilkumar | SPA | Working-class loyalty to SPA allies. |
| 11 | Dr. R.K. Nagar | J. John Ebenezer (DMK) | R. S. Rajesh (AIADMK) | Maria Wilson | SPA | Traditional DMK bastion in North Chennai. |
| 12 | Perambur | R. D. Shekar (DMK) | M. Thilagabama (PMK) | C Joseph Vijay | TVK | SHOCKER: TVK Chief Vijay’s debut seat. |
| 13 | Kolathur | M. K. Stalin (DMK) | P. Santhana Krishnan | VS Babu | SPA | Safe seat for the incumbent Chief Minister. |
| 14 | Villivakkam | Karthik Mohan (DMK) | S. R. Vijayakumar (AIADMK) | Adhav Arjuna | SPA | Disciplined cadre and middle-class support. |
| 15 | Thiru-Vi-Ka-Nag ar (SC) | K. S. Ravichandran (DMK) | Porkodi Armstrong (AIADMK) | M R Pallavi | SPA | Strong VCK influence in urban reserved seat. |
| 16 | Egmore (SC) | Tamilan Prasanna (DMK) | Abishek Rengasamy (AIADMK) | Rajmohan | SPA | Effective youth outreach narrative. |
| 17 | Royapuram | Subair Khan (DMK) | D. Jayakumar (AIADMK) | K V Vijayathamu | NDA | D. Jayakumar’s personal local popularity. |
| 18 | Harbour | P. K. Sekar Babu (DMK) | R. Manohar (AIADMK) | Sinora P.S.Ashok | SPA | Minister’s absolute ground-level control. |
| 19 | Chepauk-T.Keni | Udhayanidhi Stalin (DMK) | Adhi Rajaram (AIADMK) | D. Selvam | SPA | Safe heavyweight seat for Deputy CM. |
| 20 | Thousand Lights | Ezhilan Naganathan (DMK) | B. Valarmathi (AIADMK) | JCD Prbhakar | SWING | TVK impact on elite/minority voter base. |
| 21 | Anna Nagar | N. Chitrarasu (DMK) | Gokula Indira (AIADMK) | V K Ramkumar | SPA | Metro and infrastructure growth focus. |
| 22 | Virugambakkam | Prabhakara Raja (DMK) | V. N. Ravi (AIADMK) | Sabarinathan | SPA | SPA base remains firm against splits. |
| 23 | Saidapet | Ma. Subramanian (DMK) | G. Senthamizha n (AMMK) | M. Arulprakasham | SPA | Ministers localized health service record. |
| 24 | T. Nagar | Raja Anbalagan (DMK) | B. Sathyanaray anan (AIADMK) | Bussy N Anand | SWING | Multi-cornered fight with heavy TVK presence. |
| 25 | Mylapore | Dha. Velu (DMK) | Tamilisai Soundararaja | Venkatramanan | SWING | High Brahmin density favoring BJP/TVK split. |
| 26 | Velachery | Hasan Moulana (INC) | M. K. Ashok (AIADMK) | R. Kumar | SPA | Congress incumbent focus on flood mitigation. |
| 27 | Sholinganallur | S. Aravind Ramesh (DMK) | K. P. Kandan (AIADMK) | P. Saravanamoorthy | SPA | IT belt favors SPA governance stability. |
| 28 | Alandur | T. M. Anbarasan (DMK) | S. Saravanan (AIADMK) | M . Harish | SPA | Industrial growth and MSME welfare focus. |
| 29 | Sriperumbudur (SC) | K. Selvaperunthagai (INC) | K. Palani (AIADMK) | K . Thennarasu | SPA | TNCC President home turf hold. |
| 30 | Pallavaram | D. Murugesan (DMDK) | Venkatesan (IJK) | J. Kamatchi | SPA | DMDK switch strengthens SPA urban base. |
| 31 | Tambaram | R.S. Krithika Devi (DMK) | C. Rajendran (AIADMK) | Sarathkumar | SPA | Middle-class demographic favoring SPA. |
| 32 | Chengalpattu | Karthik Dhandapani (DMK) | M. Gajendran (AIADMK) | S. Thiyagarajan | SPA | High infra growth credited to state gov. |
| 33 | Thiruporur | Panneer Doss (VCK) | K. Balu (PMK) | Vijayaraj | SWING | Intense Vanniyar-Dalit polarization. |
| 34 | Cheyyur (SC) | Sinthanai Selvan (VCK) | E. Rajashekar (AIADMK) | K Mohanraja | SPA | VCK deep penetration in reserved seat. |
| 35 | Madurantakam (SC) | S. Amulu Ponmalar (DMK) | Maragatham Kumaravel (AIADMK) | Ezhil Kethrin | NDA | AIADMK stronghold in the rural south-east. |
| 36 | Uthiramerur | K. Sundar (DMK) | P. Maheshkum ar (PMK) | Munirathinam | SPA | Agricultural subsidies and MLA performance. |
| 37 | Kancheepuram | Nithya Sugumar (DMK) | V. Somasundar am (AIADMK) | R. V . Ranjithkumar | SPA | Weavers welfare schemes and local infra. |
| 38 | Arakkonam (SC) | Ezhil Caroline | S. Ravi | V. Gandhiraj | NDA | S. Ravi’s personal local influence. |
| 39 | Sholinghur | A. M. Munirathinam (INC) | K. Saravanan (PMK) | G. Kapil | SPA | INC incumbent’s strong rural connect. |
| 40 | Katpadi | Durai Murugan (DMK) | V. Ramu (AIADMK) | M. Sudhakar | SPA | Durai Murugan’s legendary local clout. |
| 41 | Ranipet | Vinoth Gandhi (DMK) | V. M. Karthikeyan (TMC) | Dhaheera | SPA | Strong industrial corridor management. |
| 42 | Arcot | J. L. Eswarappan (DMK) | S. M. Sukumar (AIADMK) | G. Vijaymohan | SPA | Consolidation of diverse OBC clusters. |
| 43 | Vellore | P. Karthikeyan (DMK) | S. R. K. Appu (AIADMK) | M.M. Vinoth Kannan | SPA | Minority consolidation and urban infra. |
| 44 | Anaikattu | A. P. Nandakumar (DMK) | T. Velazhagan (AIADMK) | R. Velmurugan | SPA | Effective local organizational reach. |
| 45 | K.V. Kuppam (SC) | Rajeswari Mohankandhi (DMK) | M. Jagan Moorthy (PB) | E. Thendral Kumar | NDA | Jagan Moorthy’s strong community leadership. |
| 46 | Gudiyattam (SC) | K. B. Pratap (DMDK) | G. Faridha (AIADMK) | K. Sindhu | SPA | DMDK shift secures this northern reserved seat. |
| 47 | Vaniyambadi | Sayyed Farooq (IUML) | G. Senthilkumar (AIADMK) | S. Sayed Burkhan | SWING | Minority split and heavy TVK impact. |
| 48 | Ambur | A. C. Vilvanathan (DMK) | R. Venkatesan (AIADMK) | P. Imdhiyas | SPA | Leather industrial labor support. |
| 49 | Jolarpet | Kavitha Dhandapani (DMK) | K. C. Veeramani (AIADMK) | C. Munisamy | NDA | Veeramani strong regional connect. |
| 50 | Tirupattur | A. Nallathambi (DMK) | A. Gnanasekar (AMMK) | Dr. M. Thiruppathi | SPA | Focus on new district headquarters. |
| 51 | Uthangarai (SC) | R. Kuppusamy (INC) | T. M. Tamilselvam (AIADMK) | B. Kumaravel | NDA | AIADMK’s historic dominance here. |
| 52 | Bargur | D. Mathiazhagan (DMK) | E. C. Govindaraja n (AIADMK) | E. Muralidharan | SPA | Granite sector and labor focus. |
| 53 | Krishnagiri | A. Chellakumar (INC) | K. Ashok Kumar (AIADMK) | Muhundh R. Pandian | SWING | Urban dissatisfaction favoring NDA. |
| 54 | Veppanahalli | P. S. Sreenivasan (DMK) | K. P. Munusamy (AIADMK) | Sambangi | NDA | Munusamy’s high regional influence. |
| 55 | Hosur | S. A. Sathya (DMK) | P. Balakrishna Reddy (AIADMK) | M. Ambarish | SPA | IT hub growth and SPA stability. |
| 56 | Thalli | T. Ramachandran (CPI) | Nagesh Kumar (BJP) | G. Suresh | SPA | Strong Left movement and tribal base. |
| 57 | Palacode | D.N.V. Senthilkumar (DMK) | K. P. Anbalagan (AIADMK) | R. Gopi | NDA | Anbalagan personal popularity. |
| 58 | Pennagaram | G.K.M. Tamil Kumaran (INC) | V. Selvam (PMK) | Kajendran | SWING | Intense PMK-INC contest. |
| 59 | Dharmapuri | V. Elangovan (DMDK) | Sowmiya Anbumani (PMK) | M. Sivan | NDA | Sowmiya Anbumani personal appeal. |
| 60 | Pappireddipatti | P. Palaniappan (DMK) | Maragatham Vetrivel (AIADMK) | S. Thilavathi | NDA | AIADMK superior booth management. |
| 61 | Harur (SC) | A. Shanmugam (DMK) | V. Sampathku mar (AIADMK) | K. Rakesh | NDA | Consistent opposition lead in rural reserved seat. |
| 62 | Chengam (SC) | M. P. Giri (DMK) | T. S. Velu (AIADMK) | K Bharathidhasan | SPA | Rural welfare and MLA connect. |
| 63 | Tiruvannamalai | E. V. Velu (DMK) | C. Ezhumalai (BJP) | Arul Arumugam | SPA | Heavyweight minister control. |
| 64 | Kilpennathur | K. Pitchandi (DMK) | S. Ramachandr an (AIADMK) | D Raja | SPA | Deputy Speaker legacy of service. |
| 65 | Kalasapakkam | P. S. T. Saravanan (DMK) | Agri S. S. (AIADMK) | C.Elumalai | NDA | Strong agricultural voter base. |
| 66 | Polur | T. P. Saravanan (DMDK) | C. R. Bhaskaran (PMK) | R.Abishek | SPA | DMDK shift aids SPA in Vanniyar belt. |
| 67 | Arani | Mahalakshmi (DMK) | L. Jaya Sudha (AIADMK) | A.Venkatesan Kumar | SWING | High anti-incumbency and farm grievances. |
| 68 | Cheyyar | O. Jothi (DMK) | Mukkur N. (AIADMK) | Dusi K.Mohan | SPA | Local SIPCOT industrial boom focus. |
| 69 | Vandavasi (SC) | Ambethkumar (DMK) | P. Rani (AIADMK) | Udhayakumar | SPA | VCK-DMK cadre integration. |
| 70 | Gingee | K. S. Masthan (DMK) | A. Ganeshkum ar (PMK) | V.Chandrasekaran | SPA | Minister popularity and flood management. |
| 71 | Mailam | L. Venkatesan (DMDK) | C. Ve. Shanmugam (AIADMK) | A.Vijay Niranjan | NDA | Shanmugam absolute regional control. |
| 72 | Tindivanam (SC) | Vanniyarasu (VCK) | P. Arjunan (AIADMK) | S.Sakthivel | SPA | VCK strong presence in reserved segment. |
| 73 | Vanur (SC) | Dravidamani (DMK) | P. Murugan (AIADMK) | G.P.Suresh | NDA | AIADMK-PMK alliance math advantage. |
| 74 | Villupuram | R. Lakshmanan (DMK) | K. Vijaya (AIADMK) | N.Mohanraj | SPA | OBC consolidation behind SPA. |
| 75 | Vikravandi | Anniyur Siva (DMK) | C. Sivakumar (PMK) | A. Vijay Vadivel | SPA | Recent bye-election sympathy and momentum. |
| 76 | Tirukkoyilur | Sigamani (DMK) | S. Palaniswami | Barani Balaji | SPA | DMK stronghold with high cadre morale. |
| 77 | Ulundurpettai | Vasanthavelu (DMK) | Kumaraguru (AIADMK) | M .Sudhakar | NDA | Kumaraguru’s individual popularity. |
| 78 | Rishivandiyam | K. Karthikeyan (DMK) | A. P. Chezhiyan (PMK) | G. Ashokkumar | SPA | High welfare delivery in rural belt. |
| 79 | Sankarapuram | T. Udhaya Suriyan (DMK) | R. Rakesh (AIADMK) | A. Jagadeesan | SPA | DMK stronghold and irrigation works. |
| 80 | Kallakurichi (SC) | Malathi (VCK) | S. Rajiv Gandhi (AIADMK) | C. Arul Vignesh | NDA | Split in Dalit vote due to TVK entry. |
| 81 | Gangavalli (SC) | K. Chinnadurai (DMK) | A. Nallathambi (AIADMK) | V. Sujatha | NDA | AIADMK dominance in rural Salem. |
| 82 | Attur (SC) | S. K. Arthanari (INC) | A. P. Jayasankara n (AIADMK) | R. Selvabharathi | NDA | Strong local AIADMK networking. |
| 83 | Yercaud (ST) | Revathi (DMK) | P. Usharani (AIADMK) | J. Lakshmi | NDA | ST support for AIADMK legacy schemes. |
| 84 | Omalur | A. R. Elangovan (DMDK) | R. Mani (AIADMK) | R. V. Adhiyaman | SPA | DMDK shift brings Omalur to SPA. |
| 85 | Mettur | Mithun (DMK) | G. Venkatachal am (AIADMK) | K. Selvam | NDA | Opposition lead in farming belts. |
| 86 | Edappadi | C. Kasi (DMK) | E. K. Palaniswami (AIADMK) | M. Arunkumar | NDA | Massive stronghold of AIADMK Gen Sec. |
| 87 | Sangagiri | M. Manikandan (DMK) | S. Vetrivel (AIADMK) | Senthilkumar | NDA | Gounder community consolidation. |
| 88 | Salem (West) | Mani Bharathi (DMK) | M. Karthi (PMK) | S.Lakshmanan | SPA | DMDK shift aids SPA urban middle-class. |
| 89 | Salem (North) | R. Rajendran (DMK) | S. Sadhasivam | K.Sivakumar | SPA | Urban middle-class welfare support. |
| 90 | Salem (South) | M. Loganathan (DMK) | J. Vinodh (AIADMK) | A.Vijay Tamilan Parthiban | NDA | Urban AIADMK stronghold and cadre. |
| 91 | Veerapandi | A. K. Tharun (DMK) | Sri Balaji (AIADMK) | M.S.Palanivel | NDA | Opposition recovery in traditional ground. |
| 92 | Rasipuram (SC) | M. Mathiventhan (DMK) | S. D. Premkumar (BJP) | Lokesh Dhanapal | SWING | DMK welfare vs BJP urban surge. |
| 93 | Senthamangala m | P. Poomalar (DMK) | C. Chandrasek aran (AIADMK) | P.Chandrasekar | SPA | Tribal welfare and hill projects. |
| 94 | Namakkal | P. Rani (DMK) | Sridevi P.S. (AIADMK) | T.S.Dileep | NDA | Transport sector grievances favor NDA. |
| 95 | Paramathi-Velur | K. S. Moorthy (DMK) | S. Sekar (AIADMK) | A.Nandhakumar | SPA | Strong agrarian base and MLA connect. |
| 96 | Tiruchengodu | E. R. Eswaran (KMDK) | R. Chandrasek ar (AIADMK) | K.G. Arunraj | SPA | KMDK base on Rising Sun symbol. |
| 97 | Kumarapalayam | S. Balu (DMK) | P. Thangamani (AIADMK) | C. Vijayalakshmi | NDA | Thangamani’s personal stronghold. |
| 98 | Erode (East) | Gopinath (INC) | R. Manoharan (AIADMK) | M.Vijay Balaji | SPA | Recent bye-election momentum. |
| 99 | Erode (West) | S. Muthusamy (DMK) | M. Yuvaraja (TMC) | K.K.Anand Mohan | SPA | Minister’s connect and urban projects. |
| 100 | Modakkurichi | Senthilnathan (DMK) | Kirthika (BJP) | D.Shanmugam | SWING | BJP incumbent vs DMK outreach. |
| 101 | Dharapuram (SC) | T. Indirani (DMK) | P. Sathyabama (AIADMK) | S. Gowri Chithra | SPA | Weavers and labor support for DMK. |
| 102 | Kangayam | M. P. Saminathan (DMK) | N. S. N. Nataraj (AIADMK) | T. Mani | SPA | Strong Gounder support for minister. |
| 103 | Perundurai | Venkatachalam (DMK) | S. Jayakumar (AIADMK) | V. T . Arunachalam | NDA | Traditional AIADMK dominance in Erode. |
| 104 | Bhavani | Chandrasekar (DMK) | Karuppanna n (AIADMK) | M.P. Balakrishnan | NDA | Karuppannan’s local influence. |
| 105 | Anthiyur | M. Sivabalan (DMK) | P. Haribhaskar (AIADMK) | M. Vijay Venkatesh | SPA | Focus on mountain economy. |
| 106 | Gobichettipalay am | N. Nallasivam (DMK) | V. B. Prabhu (AIADMK) | K. A. Sengottaiyan | TVK | SHOCKER: Sengottaiyan moves to TVK. |
| 107 | Bhavanisagar (SC) | P. L. Sundaram (CPI) | A. Bannari (AIADMK) | V.P. Tamil Selvi | SPA | Strong Left presence and Dalit base. |
| 108 | Udhagamandala m | Ramachandran (INC) | Bhojarajan (BJP) | R. Ibrahim | SPA | Minority and plantation worker support. |
| 109 | Gudalur (SC) | Thiravidamani (DMK) | Pon. Jayaseelan (AIADMK) | A. Deepak Sai Kishore | SPA | Forest rights and SPA narrative. |
| 110 | Coonoor | K. M. Raju (DMK) | A. Ramu (AIADMK) | C. Thangaraj | SPA | Plantation labor welfare focus. |
| 111 | Mettupalayam | Kavitha (DMK) | O. K. Chinnaraj (AIADMK) | N. Sunil Anand | NDA | Agricultural and religious base. |
| 112 | Avanashi (SC) | Kokila Mani (DMK) | L. Murugan (BJP) | S. Kamali | NDA | Union Minister Murugan profile. |
| 113 | Tiruppur (North) | Ravi (CPI) | M. S. M. Anandan (AIADMK) | Sathyabama | NDA | Electricity tariff hike grievances. |
| 114 | Tiruppur (South) | Dineshkumar (DMK) | S. Thangaraj (BJP) | S. Balamurugan | SWING | Labor-minority split tight fight. |
| 115 | Palladam | K. Selvaraj (DMK) | K. P. Paramasivam (AIADMK) | K . Ramkumar | NDA | Poultry sector support for NDA. |
| 116 | Sulur | Murugeshan (DMK) | V. P. Kandasamy (AIADMK) | N.M. Sukumar | NDA | Gounder fortress and infra record. |
| 117 | Kavundampalay am | Suryaprakash (INC) | P. R. G. Arunkumar (AIADMK) | R. T. Kanimozhi | NDA | Structural dominance of AIADMK. |
| 118 | Coimbatore (N) | Senthamizh (DMK) | Vanathi Srinivasan (BJP) | V. Sampathkumar | NDA | Vanathi’s MSME and urban appeal. |
| 119 | Thondamuthur | Karthikeyan (DMK) | S. P. Velumani (AIADMK) | R. Sathish Raju | NDA | Velumani absolute regional control. |
| 120 | Coimbatore (S) | Senthil Balaji (DMK) | Amman K. Arjunan (AIADMK) | V. Senthil Kumar | SWING | Balaji’s return bid vs urban BJP base. |
| 121 | Singanallur | Naidu (INC) | K. R. Jayaraman (AIADMK) | K.S. Giriprashath | NDA | Urban AIADMK base remains strong. |
| 122 | Kinathukadavu | S. Sabari (DMK) | S. Damodaran (AIADMK) | K. Vignesh | NDA | Rural Coimbatore support for AIADMK. |
| 123 | Pollachi | K. Nithyanandhan (DMK) | V. Jayaraman (AIADMK) | G. Ramanathan | NDA | Jayaraman individual popularity. |
| 124 | Valparai (SC) | A. Sudhakar (DMK) | D. Lakshmana (AIADMK) | Dr. Sreedharan | SPA | Focus on plantation worker wages. |
| 125 | Udumalaipettai | K. Radhakrishnan (DMK) | Udumalai K. (AIADMK) | G. K. Shankar | NDA | Incumbent record and farm support. |
| 126 | Madathukulam | Jayaramakrishna n | C. Shanmugave lu (AMMK) | R. Thirumalai | SPA | SPA cadre unity in rural belt. |
| 127 | Palani | N. Pandi (CPI-M) | Ravi Manoharan | Dr. M. Praveenkumar | SPA | Religious and tourism labor support. |
| 128 | Oddanchatram | R. Sakkarapani (DMK) | Vidiyal Sekar (BJP) | S. Mohan | SPA | Minister market management clout. |
| 129 | Athoor | I. Periyasamy (DMK) | A. Viswanathan (AIADMK) | N. Kalaiselvi | SPA | Safe heavyweight seat for the DMK. |
| 130 | Nilakottai (SC) | Nagajothi (DMK) | S. Thenmozhi (AIADMK) | R. Ayyanar | NDA | AIADMK fortress in flower belt. |
| 131 | Natham | K. K. Selvakumar (DMK) | Natham R. (AIADMK) | L. L. Ramesh | NDA | Viswanathan caste mobilization. |
| 132 | Dindigul | I. P. Senthilkumar (DMK) | Dindigul C. S. (AIADMK) | Nazeer Raja | SWING | Urban welfare vs base support fight. |
| 133 | Vedasandur | Gandhirajan (DMK) | Paramasiva m (AIADMK) | Dr N.Nagajothi | SPA | Mill workers and subsidy support. |
| 134 | Aravakurichi | R. Elango (DMK) | K. Selvakumar (AIADMK) | Karthikeyan | SPA | Strong minority consolidation. |
| 135 | Karur | Asi. M. Thyagarajan | M. R. Vijayabhaska r (AIADMK) | V.P.Mathiyalagan | NDA | Vijayabhaskar return focus. |
| 136 | K.R. Puram (SC) | C. K. Raja (DMK) | S. Dhivya (AIADMK) | S.Madhan | SPA | VCK-DMK consolidation. |
| 137 | Kulithalai | A. Chandran (DMK) | S. Karunakaran (AIADMK) | G.Balasubramani | SPA | Traditional DMK stronghold hold. |
| 138 | Manapaarai | Abdul Samad (DMK) | Vijayakumar (AIADMK) | R.Kathiravan | SPA | Minority-OBC consolidation. |
| 139 | Srirangam | S. Durairaj (DMK) | R. Manoharan (AIADMK) | S.Ramesh | SPA | Religious town growth focus. |
| 140 | Trichy West | K. N. Nehru (DMK) | M. Rajasekhar (AMMK) | G.Ramamoorthy | SPA | Nehru’s absolute district control. |
| 141 | Trichy East | Irudhayaraj (DMK) | Rajasekaran (AIADMK) | C Joseph Vijay | TVK | SHOCKER: TVK chief’s second seat. |
| 142 | Thiruverumbur | Anbil Mahesh (DMK) | P. Kumar (AIADMK) | Navalpattu S.Viji | SPA | Minister Mahesh’s youth base. |
| 143 | Lalgudi | Soundara Pandian | Leema Rose (AIADMK) | K. P Krishnan | SWING | TVK heavyweight creates 3-way split. |
| 144 | Manachanallur | S. Kathiravan (DMK) | R. V. Bharathan (STMK) | V.Saravanan | NDA | Industrial labor support for NDA. |
| 145 | Musiri | Karunairaaja (DMK) | N. Yoganathan (AIADMK) | N.Vignesh | SPA | Debt waiver impact and welfare. |
| 146 | Thuraiyur (SC) | Vichu Lenin (INC) | E. Suroja (AIADMK) | K.Sivakumar | SPA | INC incumbent rural connect. |
| 147 | Perambalur (SC) | Jayalakshmi (DMK) | Tamilselvan (AIADMK) | K.Sivakumar | SPA | VCK support and Dalit outreach. |
| 148 | Kunnam | S. S. Sivasankar (DMK) | Saranya (IJK) | M.Revathi | SPA | Minister performance and growth. |
| 149 | Ariyalur | Latha Balu (DMK) | Rajendran (AIADMK) | M.Sivakumar | NDA | Cement industry grievances favor NDA. |
| 150 | Jayankondam | K.S.K. Kannan (DMK) | K. Vaithi (PMK) | Kavitha G Rajendran | NDA | PMK stronghold Vanniyar consolidation. |
| 151 | Tittakudi (SC) | C. V. Ganesan (DMK) | N. Murugumara n (AIADMK) | Rajasekar | SPA | Minister work and VCK support. |
| 152 | Virudhachalam | Premalatha (DMK) | Tamilarasi (PMK) | S.Vijay | SPA | SHOCKER: DMDK Chief wins in SPA. |
| 153 | Neyveli | Saba. Rajendran (DMK) | Sorathur (AIADMK) | K.Anand | SPA | NLC labor support for SPA. |
| 154 | Panruti | Abdul Rahman (VCK) | K. Mohan (AIADMK) | M.Manikandan | SPA | VCK deep presence and DMK support. |
| 155 | Cuddalore | A.S. Chandra | M. C. Sampath | V.Rajkumar | NDA | Sampath’s legacy urban industrial profile. |
| 156 | Kurinjipadi | M.R.K. Panneer (DMK) | Bhuvanendh ran | Dr Rajkumar | SPA | Minister’s stronghold and agro-focus. |
| 157 | Bhuvanagiri | D. K. Saravana (DMK) | Arunmozhith evan | D.Mahalingam | NDA | Arunmozhithevan’s local clout. |
| 158 | Chidambaram | Thamimun Ansari | K. A. Pandian (AIADMK) | Dr N.Pari | NDA | Influence in coastal fishing community. |
| 159 | K.Mannarkoil | Jothimani (VCK) | Anbu Cholan (PMK) | S.Srinivasan | SPA | VCK chief home-turf dominance. |
| 160 | Sirkazhi (SC) | Senthil Selvan (DMK) | M. Sakthi (AIADMK) | C.S.Gopinath | SPA | MDMK shift on Rising Sun symbol. |
| 161 | Mayiladuthurai | Jamal Yunus (INC) | A. Palanisamy (PMK) | C.S.Arun Rasheeth | SPA | Strong minority/labor vote for SPA. |
| 162 | Poompuhar | Nivedha (DMK) | Pavunraj (AIADMK) | K.Vijayalayan | NDA | Fishing community grievances. |
| 163 | Nagapattinam | Jawahirullah (DMK) | Thanga Kathiravan | N.Sukumar | SPA | Minority and Left consolidation. |
| 164 | Kilvelur (SC) | D. Latha (CPI-M) | Vadivel (PMK) | D.A.P.Senthilpandiyan | SPA | Strong Left presence in Delta. |
| 165 | Vedaranyam | Pugazhendhi (DMK) | O. S. Manian (AIADMK) | A.Kingsley Gerald | NDA | Manian’s absolute control over salt belt. |
| 166 | T.Poondi (SC) | K. Marimuthu (CPI) | Paladhanday utham | S.Pandiyan | SPA | Marimuthu’s grassroots popularity. |
| 167 | Mannargudi | T. R. B. Rajaa (DMK) | S. Kamaraj (AMMK) | UVM Rajarajan | SPA | Minister Rajaa’s high urban visibility. |
| 168 | Thiruvarur | Kalaivanan (DMK) | Govi Chandru (BJP) | V. Veeramani | SPA | Safe DMK seat; Karunanidhi family legacy. |
| 169 | Nannilam | Mubarak (DMK) | R. Kamaraj (AIADMK) | S. Prabhakaran | NDA | Kamaraj’s personal connect with farmers. |
| 170 | T.Marudur (SC) | Govi. Chezian (DMK) | Ilamathi (AIADMK) | S. Prabhakaran | SPA | Focus on local education infra. |
| 171 | Kumbakonam | G. Anbalagan (DMK) | Ashok Kumar (TMC) | R. Vinoth | SPA | Urban development/minority concentration. |
| 172 | Papanasam | Shahjahan (IUML) | Shanmugapr abhu | U. Azarudeen | SPA | SPA’s strong farm labor base. |
| 173 | Thiruvaiyaru | Durai. Chandra | V. Karthikeyan (AMMK) | M . Manikandan | SPA | Personal stronghold in Delta culture. |
| 174 | Thanjavur | Shan. Ramanathan | Muruganant ham (BJP) | R. Vijay Saravanan | SPA | Growth in tourism infra. |
| 175 | Orathanadu | R. Vaithilingam | M. Sekar (AIADMK) | Dr. K Aravind | SPA | SHOCKER: Vaithilingam moves to SPA. |
| 176 | Pattukkottai | K. Annadurai (DMK) | C. V. Sekar (AIADMK) | C Madhan | SPA | Focus on coconut farmers procurement. |
| 177 | Peravurani | N. Ashokkumar (DMK) | Govi Ilango (AIADMK) | T Chandra Kaandeeban | SPA | Robust cooperative network. |
| 178 | G.Kottai (SC) | M. Chinndadurai | Udhayakuma r (BJP) | N Subramanian | SPA | Left labor union presence in district. |
| 179 | Viralimalai | K. Chellapandian | Vijayabhaska r (AIADMK) | P Murugesan | NDA | Vijayabhaskar’s medical service record. |
| 180 | Pudukkottai | V. Muthuraja (DMK) | Ramachandr an (BJP) | K.M Shareef | SPA | Urban development focus. |
| 181 | Thirumayam | S. Regupathy (DMK) | Vairamuthu (AIADMK) | C Sindhamani | SPA | Law minister’s personal connect. |
| 182 | Alangudi | Meyyanathan (DMK) | D. Vimal (AIADMK) | Durai Kandasamy | SPA | Environment minister’s green initiatives. |
| 183 | Aranthangi | T. Ramachandran | Kavitha (BJP) | J Mohamad Parvez | SPA | INC-DMK stronghold in Pudukkottai. |
| 184 | Karaikudi | S. Mangudi (INC) | Dherpoki V. Pandi (AMMK) | Dr. T. K. Prabhu | NTK | SHOCKER: NTK chief Seeman wins here. |
| 185 | Tiruppattur | Periyakaruppan | KC Thirumaran (BJP) | Srinivasa Sethupathi | SPA | Minister’s personal stronghold. |
| 186 | Sivaganga | Karunas (DMK) | Senthilnatha n | Kulandhai Rani Nachiar | NDA | Senthilnathan’s strong local network. |
| 187 | Manamadurai | A. Tamilarasi (DMK) | Balaganapat hy (BJP) | D. Ilangovan | SPA | Dalit-minority consolidation. |
| 188 | Melur | P. Viswanathan (INC) | Periyapullan (AIADMK) | A. Madurai Veeran | NDA | AIADMK absolute dominance in Melur. |
| 189 | Madurai East | P. Moorthy (DMK) | K. Mahendran (AIADMK) | S.Karthikeyan | SPA | Minister’s control over district logistics. |
| 190 | Sholavandan | A. Venkatesan (DMK) | K. Manickam (AIADMK) | M.V.Karuppaiah | SPA | VCK-DMK unity in reserved segment. |
| 191 | Madurai North | G. Thalapathi (DMK) | P. Saravanan (AIADMK) | A.Kallanai | SPA | Urban development and candidate clout. |
| 192 | Madurai South | M. Boominathan | Raama Sreenivasan | J. Jo Peter | SWING | BJP’s rising influence in urban centers. |
| 193 | Madurai Central | Palanivel Thiaga R. | Sundar C (PNK) | V.N.S.Mustafa | SPA | PTR’s urban governance model success. |
| 194 | Madurai West | Raghu Balaji (DMK) | Sellur K. Raju (AIADMK) | S.R.Thangapandi | NDA | Raju’s personal popularity and machinery. |
| 195 | T.Parankundram | Kiruthiga (DMK) | Rajan Chellappa | CTR.Nirmalkumar | NDA | Chellappa’s religious connect and clout. |
| 196 | Thirumangalam | M. Manimaran (DMK) | R. B. Udhayakuma r | N.Sathish Kumar | NDA | Former minister social engineering. |
| 197 | Usilampatti | T. Saravana (INC) | I. Mahendran (AIADMK) | Vijay Mahalingam | NDA | AIADMK hold on Thevar community. |
| 198 | Andipatti | A. Maharajan (DMK) | A. Logirajan (AIADMK) | V.Pandi | SPA | OPS factor significantly aiding DMK. |
| 199 | Periyakulam | Attral Arasu | K. Kathirkamu | G.Sabari | SPA | VCK cadre mobilization in the valley. |
| 200 | Bodinayakanur | O. Panneerselvam | V.T. Narayanasa my | S.Prakash | SPA | SHOCKER: OPS winning on DMK ticket. |
| 201 | Cumbum | N. Eramakrishnan | Jakkaiyan (AIADMK) | P.L.A Jaganath | SPA | Incumbent’s link with cooperatives. |
| 202 | Rajapalayam | S. Thangapandian | Priscilla (AIADMK) | K.Jagadeeswari | SPA | Textile labor support for SPA. |
| 203 | Srivilliputhur | P. Mahalingam (CPI) | Chandra Prabha | A.Karthik | NDA | AIADMK hold on temple economy. |
| 204 | Sattur | A. Kadarkarai (DMK) | Nainar Nagendran | M.Ajith | NDA | Nagendran’s massive regional clout. |
| 205 | Sivakasi | G. Ashokan (INC) | Rajenthra Bhalaji | Keerthana | NDA | Bhalaji’s high-resource campaign. |
| 206 | Virudhunagar | Vijayaprabhakar | V. G. Ganesan | S.P.Selvam | SPA | Sympathy for Vijayakant on Rising Sun. |
| 207 | Aruppukkottai | Ramachandran | Sethupathi (AIADMK) | K.Karthik kumar | SPA | Minister’s personal stronghold industrial. |
| 208 | Tiruchuli | Thangam Thennarasu | Rajavarman (AIADMK) | S.Samayan | SPA | Finance Minister massive popularity. |
| 209 | Paramakudi (SC) | K. K. Kathiravan | S. Muthaiah (AIADMK) | G.Gopinathan | SPA | VCK-DMK social justice narrative. |
| 210 | Tiruvadanai | Karu Manickam | Keerthika (AIADMK) | V.K.Raji | SPA | INC incumbent connect with coastal. |
| 211 | Ram nathapura m | Muthuramalinga m | K. Nagendran (BJP) | E.K.Sahul Hameed | SPA | Strong-minority consolidation in district. |
| 212 | Mudhukulathur | Raja Kannappan | S. Pandi (AIADMK) | V.Malarvizhi Jayabala | SPA | Minister district-wide clout. |
| 213 | Vilathikulam | Markandayan (DMK) | R. Sathya (AIADMK) | Kasiram | SPA | Robust rural outreach agro-subsidies. |
| 214 | Thoothukkudi | Geetha Jeevan (DMK) | Chellapandian | A.Srinath | SPA | Minister’s urban development focus. |
| 215 | Tiruchendur | Anitha (DMK) | Radhakrishn an (BJP) | K.Murugan | SPA | Strong Nadar support temple infra. |
| 216 | Srivaikuntam | Oorvasi (INC) | Shanmugana than | G.Saravanan | SPA | INC coastal base and candidate popularity. |
| 217 | Ottapidaram | Ramajeyam (DMK) | Sundararaj (AMMK) | P.Madhanraja | SPA | Water access focus in reserved segment. |
| 218 | Kovilpatti | Karunanithi (DMK) | Kadambur Raju | S.Balasubramaniam | NDA | Raju’s deep local industrial labor base. |
| 219 | Sankarankovil | Sangai Ganesan | Dhileepan (AIADMK) | C.Ramarajan | NDA | AIADMK lead in interior Tenkasi segments. |
| 220 | Vasudevanallur | E. Raja (DMK) | Ananthan (BJP) | R.Amudha Rani | SPA | Strong SPA cadre mobilization. |
| 221 | Kadayanallur | Rajendran (DMK) | Krishnamural i | R.K.Abdul Jalil | SPA | Minority consolidation water management. |
| 222 | Tenkasi | Kalai Kathiravan | Pandian (AIADMK) | A.Rajaprakash | SPA | Incumbent MLA record with farm labor. |
| 223 | Alangulam | Manoj Pandian | Prabakaran (AIADMK) | V.Vipin Chakravarthi | SPA | SHOCKER: Pandian wins on DMK ticket. |
| 224 | Tirunelveli | Su. Subramanian | Ganesaraja (AIADMK) | R.S.Murugan | SWING | BJP/TVK presence splitting trad votes. |
| 225 | Ambasamudram | V. P. Durai (INC) | Isakki Subhaya | S.Rajagopal | NDA | Subhaya’s deep local network. |
| 226 | Palayamkottai | Abdul Wahab (DMK) | Syed Sulthan | S.Maria John | SPA | Minority bastion of DMK in South. |
| 227 | Nanguneri | Rubi Manoharan | Esakkimuthu (AMMK) | Rettiyapatti Narayanan | SPA | Rubi’s charity networks popularity. |
| 228 | Radhapuram | M. Appavu (DMK) | Balakrishnan (BJP) | K.Satheesh Christopher | SPA | Speaker Appavu’s safe seat high infra. |
| 229 | Kanniyakumari | R. Mahesh (DMK) | Thalavai (AIADMK) | S.R.Madhavan | SPA | Thalavai’s historical dominance coastal. |
| 230 | Nagercoil | S. Austin (DMK) | M. R. Gandhi (BJP) | Pervin Kings | NDA | Incumbent connect religious polarization. |
| 231 | Colachal | Cuthbert (INC) | Sivakumar (BJP) | Prem Alex Lawrence | SPA | Strong Christian/minority support. |
| 232 | Padmanabhapur am | Chellasamy | P. Ramesh (BJP) | S.Krishnakumar | SPA | Multi-ethnic labor support for CPI-M. |
| 233 | Vilavancode | Pravin (INC) | Vijayadharan i (BJP) | K.Michael Kumar | SPA | INC bastion; BJP shift not enough. |
| 234 | Killiyoor | S. Rajesh (INC) | Nivin Simon (BJP) | S.Sabeer | SPA | Massive safe seat for INC in far south. |
Showing 234 of 234 constituencies
Why We Project DMK-led SPA Retaining Power
Factor 01
Strong DMK Incumbency & Welfare Delivery
The DMK government's flagship welfare programs — Makkalai Thedi Maruthuvam (doorstep healthcare), Pudhumai Penn scheme (₹1,000/month for women graduates), free bus travel for women, and the Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thogai (₹1,000/month for women household heads) — have created deep grassroots loyalty particularly among women and rural voters, forming a decisive electoral bloc.
Factor 02
AIADMK's Internal Fragmentation
After the EPS-OPS split, AIADMK faces serious organizational challenges. The party's inability to project a single strong leadership and the defection of O. Panneerselvam to DMK have significantly weakened their ground-level cadre structure. Our intelligence suggests their vote consolidation has dropped compared to 2021.
Factor 03
TVK's Disruptive Entry
Actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is the wildcard factor. While TVK is projected to win 10–18 seats in urban pockets and select constituencies, its primary impact is splitting anti-incumbency votes that would otherwise go to AIADMK+/NDA, indirectly benefiting the SPA alliance.
Factor 04
Alliance Arithmetic & Social Engineering
POLIQ's analysis shows the SPA alliance (DMK + Congress + VCK + CPI + CPI-M + MDMK + DMDK) benefits from superior social engineering — covering Dalit, minority, OBC, and Vanniyar demographics. The DMDK switch to SPA and OPS joining DMK are game-changing developments that have reshaped the electoral math decisively.
Disclaimer: This projection is based on POLIQ's proprietary multi-source intelligence methodology and represents our best analytical assessment as of 07th April 2026. Actual election results may vary. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as political advice. POLIQ is an independent, non-partisan research organization. For commissioned research or methodology details, contact us at hello@poliq.in.